In an increasingly complex international trade landscape, clarity and confidence have become essential.

While policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and regulatory adjustments add layers of uncertainty to global markets, they also reinforce the need for reliable guidance and forward-thinking professional advice.

For businesses across the Mediterranean, the accounting profession offers just that: a steady compass in volatile seas.

Based on the latest UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, this article examines how Mediterranean accountants can lead the way in helping businesses adapt, diversify, and thrive — not despite uncertainty, but because they are prepared for it.

⚠️ Uncertainty is the new tariff – and it’s worse

According to UNCTAD, uncertainty is often more disruptive than tariffs. Firms may adapt to rising costs, but they cannot effectively plan around ambiguous or shifting trade policies.

Recent US trade policy shifts are a vivid example. The announcement of new tariffs in early 2025 created a surge in volatility before the tariffs even took effect, as firms scrambled to pre-empt potential costs. Once the policies were implemented, volatility decreased — not because the environment improved, but because the rules were finally known.

🧱 Structural risks for small firms and vulnerable economies

The burden of trade policy uncertainty is not shared equally.

• Small firms lack the liquidity, logistical capacity or flexibility to front-load exports or shift transport modes;
• Least developed and lower-income countries (many in the wider Mediterranean neighbourhood) are especially exposed, as they depend on preferential trade programmes and have limited capacity to interpret, anticipate or react to changes in rules of origin, tariffs or transshipment conditions.

For Mediterranean economies, this poses both a macro-level risk and a micro-level opportunity for intervention.

🔎 The role of accountants: from compliance to strategic advisory

In this context, accountants must go beyond their traditional roles. Trade policy uncertainty impacts:

• Inventory and cashflow management;
• Export planning and pricing;
• Financing needs and investment forecasting;
• Supply chain modelling and business continuity strategies.

Professional accountants are ideally placed to:

• Guide SMEs through these complexities;
• Assess exposure to different markets or agreements;
• Help firms adapt to shifts in trade costs and logistics;
• Monitor geopolitical risks with financial impact.

For FCM - Fédération des Experts Comptables Mediterranéens / Federation of Mediterranean Accountants and its member bodies, the challenge is clear: build the capacity of the profession to serve as strategic advisors in a volatile global trade environment.

🌍 Diversification and trade agreements: essential shock absorbers

UNCTAD data shows that countries and companies with diversified export markets suffer less from trade volatility. Similarly, exporters operating under regional or bilateral trade agreements tend to enjoy more stable conditions.

Mediterranean economies, many of which are:

• Integrated into value chains that include the EU, UK, US, Asia...;
• Bound by asymmetrical trade agreements;
• Dependent on concentrated export markets,

...must therefore prioritise market diversification and stronger participation in rule-based trade frameworks.

Accountants can directly support this agenda by identifying:

• Opportunities for export redirection;
• Market-specific compliance risks;
• Funding tools to support diversification efforts.

🛡️ Towards trade resilience: what can be done?

UNCTAD proposes concrete recommendations to mitigate policy uncertainty:

• Provide advance notice of policy changes;
• Base trade measures on transparent, data-driven logic;
• Strengthen dispute settlement mechanisms;
• Encourage international coordination;
• Promote export diversification.

For FCM, this means also:

• Advocating for greater inclusion of accountants in policy advisory groups;
• Supporting capacity building for SMEs in trade finance and compliance;
• Encouraging governments to consult professional bodies when defining rules of origin, tax implications, or sustainability criteria in new trade measures.

✅ Conclusion: The Mediterranean needs more than trade – it needs trusted professionals

As trade becomes increasingly political, unpredictable and fragmented, the accounting profession must act as a stabilising force. Mediterranean economies cannot afford to be passive recipients of global disruptions.

Through informed advisory, technical competence and ethical leadership, accountants can help build resilient export strategies, sound financial planning, and credible long-term investment frameworks — especially for SMEs.

The FCM reaffirms its commitment to promoting a profession that protects not just compliance, but the future of Mediterranean businesses in an increasingly unstable global marketplace.

🔍 Glossary of Key Terms

🟠 Trade Policy Uncertainty The unpredictability surrounding changes in trade rules, tariffs, regulations, or agreements that affect international commerce. It increases risks for businesses and governments by making planning and investment decisions more difficult.

🟠 Tariff A tax imposed on imported goods, often used to protect domestic industries or as a tool in trade negotiations.

🟠 Value Chain The full range of activities involved in producing and delivering a product or service, from raw materials to final customer. Global value chains refer to these processes crossing multiple countries.

🟠 Front-loading A business strategy of accelerating shipments or purchases ahead of expected changes in trade conditions (e.g., before new tariffs are imposed).

🟠 Rules of Origin Criteria used to determine the national source of a product, relevant for trade agreements, tariffs, and customs procedures.

🟠 Trade Diversification The process of expanding the number and variety of export markets to reduce dependency on a single country or region.

🟠 Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) A treaty between two or more countries that facilitates trade by reducing tariffs and setting shared rules. Examples include the EU, USMCA, or the African Continental Free Trade Area.

🟠 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) Countries classified by the United Nations as having the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development, often facing special challenges in accessing international markets.

🟠 Strategic Ambiguity The deliberate use of vague or undefined policy measures by governments to retain flexibility, negotiate leverage, or avoid political backlash—often at the expense of predictability for businesses.